The Toronto mayoral by-election is on June 26, 2023, and over 100 hopeful candidates are hitting the hustings. As with any election, a crowded field means polling firms are hard at work projecting a potential winner. But with so many results being reported on a weekly basis, it can be hard to distinguish those that are credible.
This month’s ELN spotlight empowers you to read between the lines of any poll you may encounter this election season:
ELN Polling Checklist
● How transparent is the poll?
Reputable pollsters will always clearly state when the survey was taken, who was contacted, what the sample size is, whether there’s a margin of error, and whether the survey was paid for by a specific interest group. If this information is missing, you can bet the poll isn’t telling you the full story.
● What is the sample size and is it representative?
The sample size represents the number of completed responses for a survey and it can tell you a lot about a poll. If too few people were surveyed, there’s a high likelihood the poll will not be reflective of general attitudes. And while a bigger sample size is often better, it will only be accurate if it’s fully representative of the whole voting population. Reputable pollsters will tell you their sample size and what work went into making it representative.
● What is the margin of error?
The margin of error is a + or – number that reflects discrepancies in a survey’s projections. Pay attention to the margin of error – the larger it is, the less confidence you should have in the poll’s results. Make a mental note of any pollster you see with consistently large margins of error.
● Who is sharing the poll?
Consider both who conducted the poll AND who is sharing the results. The reality is some polling companies are more reputable than others and a quick Google search will give you a wealth of information about the firm and their previous work. It’s also important to note whether someone else is sponsoring the poll and whether they may have an ulterior motive.
Don’t forget: candidates are only going to echo those results that have them in a strong position. That is why it’s always helpful to check local poll aggregators and trackers. As one example, the Toronto Star has an online poll tracker here.
● Is the poll an outlier?
If a poll’s results differ starkly from every other election poll, treat it with caution. Outliers are an expected part of polling, but well-known aggregators like 338 advise that unless the poll is precipitated by major news or a big campaign event, you should be throwing them into the average.
Remember: Polls are only a snapshot in time. While they provide useful insights into public opinion – and great fodder for lively political debates – your vote shouldn’t depend on them. Instead, consider these helpful resources you can use to learn more about the candidates and where they stand: